Best NFL Win Total Bets: Can You Trust Cardinals, Giants to Improve?

Aug 15, 2019 09:15 PM EDT
Credit:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray

  • The Westgate SuperBook has released NFL win totals for all 32 teams in the 2019 season.
  • Using The Action Network's NFL model, we highlight the four best win totals bets to place right now.

The Action Network ran 10,000 simulations of the 2019 NFL season using player and team statistics adjusted for Strength of Schedule to determine the number of wins for each franchise.

For the most part, our numbers are in line with the win total odds from the Westgate SuperBook. Based on the projections, 25 of 32 teams were within one game of their season win total.

Though, a few teams are offering bettors value.

To determine if there is value betting a team to go over or under its win total, we compared our projections to betting odds.

For example, Dallas’ win total is listed at 9 (under -120). In order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Cowboys’ under, they would need to win eight or fewer games 54.5% (which is 120/(120+100)) of the time.

Dak Prescott & Co. are projected to win eight or fewer games 64.9% of the time with a chance of a push if the team wins exactly nine games. This means there is value in placing an under bet at -120 odds.

Based on the difference in implied probability and projected chance, here are the best over and under bets available.

In the past two seasons using the same analysis, our top four plays combined to go 7-1, covering by 2.5 games on average.

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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